1 lakers vs 3 magic(s)
the lakers clawed and fought through inferior teams to reach the nba finals. keys plays and jelly-bean being jelly-bean got the lakers over the nuggets and on to the nba finals. the lakers are still not playing to their talent level, but it was just enough against teams not yet ready for the primetime. everybody besides kobe has been up and down (in sasha's case, just down). game 6 against the nuggets showed us a glimpse of the lakers turning on all cyclinders, but can they keep it up against the magic(s)?
the magic(s) defied expectations of a cavs/lakers series by steam-rolling the cavs with "match-up" problems. i'd say they were just flat-out out-played. the cavs had a choice - crowd the paint or stay on the shooters. they did neither. the magic just dumped it down to the big man, double-team came, they moved the ball side-to-side and hit their shots while the cavs either got lost on their rotations or got their smalls on bigs or got their slows on fasts. i hope everybody knows now that howard is no david robinson and brings the pain. lebron is just not good enough to beat elite teams.
since match-ups were so important, here's how they match-up:
center- bynum vs. howard. advantage howard. howard is the defensive player of the year and is the most active big man of all-time. he plays great weakside d, flies down the court, grabs every rebound and gets a ton of tip-in dunks. not to mention he's an athletic freak and a massive human being. at least drew bynum is big and shown flashes of dominance, but the only thing he likes doing is scoring points, and at this point, he's only half-way decent. this means we'll see a lot of pau at center.
power foward - gasol vs. lewis. advantage gasol. gasol is ready for the primetime. he's demanding the ball and swearing and he knows he is the third best player in the series. he has a ton of moves down low, and can move out and hit the 15 ft jumper. pau is a really smart player, passes well, and is starting to lift weights. he'll destroy lewis on the block, as lewis is really a small guy in a big guy's body. pau no longer has to deal with a physical player, as lewis is just as soft. while pau tries hard on defense, he's no match for lewis on the outside. lewis is a bomer and hit a ton of big shots vs the cavs. expect an offensive explosion from both players.
small forward - ariza vs. turkoglu. advantage mr. 4th quarter. hedo is a cold-blooded bomer who gets streaky at the right times. he plays great off the pick-and-roll, and plays point-forward during the fourth quarter. he can hit difficult shots down the stretch, which makes him dangerous. ariza is starting to become a big-play guy with key steals and big open threes against the nuggets. he's long and bothers shooters on the perimeter, but has trouble guarding bigger players who like to go to the hole. the key is hedo being aggressive. and ariza needs to shut down the pick and roll, hit the three, and make a couple hustle plays a game.
shooting gaurd - kobe vs. lee/pietrus. advantage kobe. kobe just dominated the nuggets with amazing play throughout the series. he took over games, played to the max, and showed he is the best player in the league. he can do anything offensively (any shot in the game is his) and can shut down a top player when he tires. he is the best fundamentally sound player and has the best footwork of any player. if his shot is on, his cut-throat attitude overshadows the game. with another championship, kobe will be considered the best player of his generation. lee and pietrus are good defenders and play good defense but are no match for kobe.
point guard - fisher vs. alston. advantage alston. alston is streaky but knows how to get the job done. a good ball-handler and is quick, but he is average in almost everything else. fisher has been champ, but shot has left him. he still can be a threat on the outside, but he needs to knock down the open three to be effective. does fisher have enough left in the tank? he's hit a ton of big shots during the finals, can he do it this year? i think he will.
bench - lakers vs magic(s). advantage lakers. the lakers have more depth and weapons off the bench. with odom the lakers can play small and have a big perimeter body on lewis when he gets going. he's also a great rebounder and can push the ball up the court. he's a match-up nightmare when he's on. lakers also have shooters and play-makers off the bench in walton, farmar, brown, and vujacic. if these guys play to their potential, they can deliever a knock-out. the magic got pietrus, gortat, and johnson who are nice back-ups, but don't have that game changing ability the lakers' bench has. pietrus is their x-factor. he can really make a difference in a game with his athleticism and corner three. also, if jameer nelson returns and is effective, the magic have a secret weapon that swing the series in their favor.
prediction: the lakers have a ton of talent and a supposed big man to stop howard. lakers also have x-factors like odom, fisher, ariza, and bymun who can carry the lakers when kobe and pau aren't hitting their shots. unfortunately, you never know who's going to show up, if anybody. can the lakers supporting all-stars play well enough times to win 4 games? with odom, the lakers can match up with the magic's shooting bigs. the magic are playing awesome basketball and amazing mental toughness. they had a few heart-breaking losses this post-season, but came back to win each series. these games are coming down to details and experience. the lakers were almost angry receiving a western-conference champion trophy and aren't going to let another championship go by. this is their time because their window is closing. they understand the urgency and heartbreak. lakers in 7.
the mini-break for baseball is finally over and here are our predictions.
